ACI World’s Director General Angela Gittens today announced the publication of ACI’s 2013 edition of the Global Traffic Forecast 2012-2031. According to Angela Gittens, “The data included in the Forecast is relied up by our members, aviation regulators and governments worldwide as an essential tool to help them plan capacity enhancements to meet the future demand for travel.”Since 1997 ACI has surveyed its members for their views on the short, medium and long term outlook of the global aviation passenger and cargo markets. The results of this survey provide the foundation for this 20-year forecast which has been created by the ACI/DKMA forecasting team. It is based on detailed inputs from close to 200 airports all over the world, from small origin and destination (O&D) airports to large hubs. This high level of coverage means that the ACI / DKMA forecasting team is confident that the forecasts closely reflect industry expectations and are the most accurate forecasts available at the time of writing. In order to facilitate precise understanding of the forecasts and ensure that the data are actionable, this report also provides insight into the “soft” and “qualitative” drivers of growth in the industry. These qualitative drivers have been taken into account in the forecast data. Please do not hesitate to contact ACI if you require more information about this report or the information contained in it.
Passenger ForecastsGlobal traffic growth got off to a positive start in 2012, with January to May figures indicating continued healthy growth of 4.8% in passenger volumes. However, the short term outlook seems less positive as the sluggish global economic recovery shows further signs of weakness due to the deepening of the Euro zone crisis, a fragile recovery in the US and a slowdown in emerging markets. This points towards a slowdown in travel demand for the remainder of the year. By 2013, traffic should start to recover linked to a modest global economic growth which is projected to accelerate by 2014 onward.
Freight ForecastsEconomic activity is expected to remain the main driver of growth in freight. Domestic demand typically drives freight activity and globalization boosts international freight operations as trade expands. Freight operations (measured in tons) should grow faster than passenger operations. In 2011 freight was estimated at roughly 93 million tons and will more than double to reach about 225 million tons by 2031, averaging 4.5% growth per annum.