Eurozone Crisis Biggest Risk to Profits
Regional Differences Widen
Geneva –The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced revisions to its industry outlook. For 2011, profitability remains weak but unchanged at $6.9 billion for a net margin of 1.2%. Looking ahead to 2012, IATA downgraded its central forecast for airline profits from $4.9 billion to $3.5 billion for a net margin of 0.6%.
The Eurozone crisis puts severe downside risk on the 2012 outlook as illustrated by the recently published OECD economic outlook. In a worst case scenario, should the Eurozone crisis evolve into a full-blown banking crises and European recession, IATA estimates that the global aviation industry could suffer losses exceeding $8 billion in 2012.
“The biggest risk facing airline profitability over the next year is the economic turmoil that would result from a failure of governments to resolve the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Such an outcome could lead to losses of over $8 billion—the largest since the 2008 financial crisis,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
2011
“The global forecast for 2011 is unchanged at $6.9 billion. But regional differences have widened, reflecting the very different economic environments facing airlines in different parts of the world. And the overall margin of 1.2% tells you just how difficult the battle for profitability in this business is,” said Tyler.